Get ready, because the underwater volcano off the Oregon coast, Axial Seamount, is stirring! Scientists are now predicting a potential eruption in mid-to-late 2026, shifting the timeline from earlier expectations. But what's the story behind this oceanic giant? Let's dive in.
Last December, experts initially suggested an eruption could occur within a year. However, new data suggests a later timeframe. Bill Chadwick, a geology and geophysics professor at Oregon State University and co-author of a blog dedicated to the seamount, explained that their team has been working to forecast the next eruption since successfully predicting the 2015 event.
In a December 2024 presentation to the American Geophysical Union, Chadwick and his colleagues highlighted that eruptions at Axial Seamount are typically preceded by increased seismic activity and a steady rise in the seafloor, caused by magma pushing upwards. The last three eruptions occurred with similar, though slightly increasing, levels of inflation. The scientists believe that the volcano will likely erupt again once it reaches or surpasses this threshold.
Following the 2015 eruption, inflation began to build again. But the rate gradually slowed through 2023, with the uplift rate nearly zero by the summer of that year. Then, in the fall of 2023, both inflation and seismic activity picked up, signaling a change in the magma supply. Initially, the team predicted an eruption window between July 2024 and the end of 2025.
By late 2024, Axial had reached 95% of the inflation level seen before the 2015 eruption.
But here's where it gets controversial... By late April 2025, inflation rates had slowed again, and on October 27th, Chadwick updated the Axial Blog, stating that the December 2024 forecast needed revision. He noted that it would take longer than anticipated to reach the same inflation threshold as before the last eruption. At the current rate, the higher inflation threshold wouldn't be reached until mid-to-late 2026.
Axial Seamount behaves similarly to Iceland's Krafla volcano, where the amount of inflation needed for an eruption increases slightly with each event. The 2015 inflation threshold was about 12 inches (30 centimeters) higher than in 2011. Scientists assume a similar increase in uplift will be observed before the next eruption. Currently, the ground is 4 inches (10 cm) higher than before the 2015 eruption, with potentially another 8 inches (20 cm) to go.
And this is the part most people miss... The reason for the increasing inflation with each eruption may be that rising magma compresses the surrounding crust, making it harder for magma to rise in the same spot later. However, inflation thresholds won't increase indefinitely, as the Juan de Fuca Ridge releases compressive stress.
But wait, there's more! Forecasting eruptions is tricky because inflation rates and thresholds are unpredictable. Chadwick admits that the forecasts are based on pattern recognition and speculation.
However, a new wave of physics-based models could change the game. One model, developed by Chadwick and his team, can use past monitoring data to accurately predict past eruptions.
Starting the week of November 10th, researchers will use this model to analyze real-time data from Axial Seamount and attempt to predict its next eruption. The results won't be released until after the next eruption, to demonstrate the model's success or failure.
What do you think? Do you believe these models will be able to accurately predict future eruptions? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
