Bold Prediction: 2026 Projections Will Miss the Mark on Pitching Performance—Here’s Why
Spring has arrived, and with it, the thrill of live baseball is back! In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite the excitement, I’ve noticed a few discrepancies between the data and my instincts. And this is the part most people miss—environmental factors like wind and stadium design might be skewing our early-season insights.
Next week, I’m thrilled to share my 1-30 pitching development rankings, a project rooted in a comprehensive survey of over 50 MLB coaches and executives. Stay tuned for that deep dive!
This spring, I’ve encountered several instances where pitch data seems off. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, whose four-seam fastballs looked dismal in their first starts but improved dramatically in their second outings. Richard Fitts showed significantly more movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25, while Rays prospect Ty Johnson added 3 inches of vertical break to his four-seamer—without any changes in release or spin. While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind and data inconsistencies are at play. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch by up to 4 inches, and stadiums without upper decks have a different wind fingerprint altogether. Additionally, Robert Stock’s research underscores how air density impacts pitch performance on Stuff+.
Controversial Take: Until we see 2026 data from MLB parks, I’m skeptical of any major movement changes without corresponding adjustments in slot, release, or spin. For now, assume pitchers look like their 2025 selves—but let’s revisit this debate in the comments: Are we underestimating the impact of spring training environments on player projections?
Take, for example, a pitcher’s performance on February 23 (2 IP, H, 2 BB, 2 K) versus February 28 (3 IP, H, BB, 4 K). The improvement is notable, but context matters.
Now, let’s talk about the Nationals, one of last season’s weakest pitching teams. I predict they’ll significantly reduce their reliance on four-seam and sinker pitches. Last year, they led the MLB with 55% fastball usage (combined four-seam and sinker). This spring, they’ve dropped that to 41.7%, second only to the Marlins. While clearer examples will emerge during the regular season, pitcher Irvin fascinates me. His projections are abysmal (~5.00 ERA in ~20 starts), but his spring adjustments are intriguing.
Irvin has slashed his four-seam and sinker usage from 54% last season to just 40% this spring. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, followed by his cutter at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The strategy? Reduce reliance on his four-seamer, which allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties.
Thought-Provoking Question: Are the Nationals onto something by overhauling their pitch strategy, or are they overcorrecting? Share your thoughts below—I’m eager to hear your take!
